Rain

Inland paddling
Post Reply
User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Given the lack of the stuff I thought it best to devote a thread to forecasts.

Other than dispersing the green algae last night's rain made no difference to my local River Weaver, which has now reached 25C. Did anyone else benefit? Looking at the rain radar the Lake District copped quite a bit.

Another batch is due on Thursday, at least here in the NW.

The weekend could be interesting as the present warm conditions could be augmented by a Spanish plume - a pulse of hot air coming up from Iberia, establishing just the right conditions for some serious thundery action. If this happens the South East will be most likely be the first to cop it.

If thunderstorms do become a possibility please take care on rivers liable to flash flooding as the atmospheric conditions during a Spanish plume event can result in locally very high rainfall totals over a short time. Keep an eye/ear on local forecasts.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Looking at rain radar, a fair amount is falling in the mountains of S and Mid Wales. Some bright echoes over W. Midlands. Another substantial pulse of rain is expected tonight.

Must have been some significant overnight rain as the Weaver has started to flow at something like its usual rate while the water temp has dropped from 26C to 23.5C.

Meanwhile there is a hint of a major depression reaching our shores sometime around the middle of next week. This could result in some seriously useful rain but it's a long way off yet.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

UPDATE

Met Office has issued a severe weather warning (heavy rain) for Cornwall and SW Wales where up to 40mm could fall tonight and tomorrow.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
peakfreak
Posts: 1530
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2007 1:03 pm
Location: Ooop Norf
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by peakfreak »

Who needs John Kettley when we have Wildswimmer Pete :-)

Pete, what about the North West?

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

peakfreak wrote:Who needs John Kettley when we have Wildswimmer Pete :-)

Pete, what about the North West?
We've got quite a lot of rain to come overnight. It looks as though June's settled weather is going to be replaced with something a bit less settled at least for the first half of July. Not cold, but there is a good chance of some significant rain during the next couple of weeks. Weather models are all over the place so it's not possible to be any more certain.

A major change in weather patterns is on the cards due to the recent El Nino event coming to an end. Although El Nino takes place in the southern Pacific it does influence weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

Nick_
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2008 10:49 pm

Re: Rain

Post by Nick_ »

Gutted... I'm playing at flatwater kayaking in the big smoke this weekend... if the rivers are up I shall be upset!!
See you on the water!

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

over 10mm already in last 12 hours in far end of Cornwall, Pembroke, Capel Curig, Lakes coast & Southern Scotland...

Metoffice has weather warnings for Cornwall, Pembroke & Lakes...

Dartcom also showing 10mm since 5pm & EA gauges show the Erme at Harford & West Dart at Two Bridges are starting to rise...

Mike
Last edited by jmmoxon on Thu Jul 01, 2010 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
peakfreak
Posts: 1530
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2007 1:03 pm
Location: Ooop Norf
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by peakfreak »

Well it's just started lashing down here over the Fylde & Wyre coast. Pair that with the Lakes rain mentioned by jmmoxon and we may just have some rivers up this weekend, (we live in hope)

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

24mm of rain on Dartmoor, but had finished by 2am, so West Dart & Erme gauges show level rises of about 20cm (but as these figures haven't been updated since 4am they've probably dropped since then).

The heaviest rain has again been around the coast of SW and Wales with 28mm in Southern Scotland.

Next few days look like West coast of Scotland & maybe Snowdonia are only places getting enough rain. (Metcheck seems to have crashed).

Mike
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Both GFS and UKMO models agree over another pulse of heavy rain on Sunday for almost all of the UK except for the S.East. Bear in mind it's still possible for a Spanish plume to arrive which will add some extra spice in the form of thunderstorms.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
maxandtheletter7
Posts: 237
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:23 am
Location: South Wales/Herfordshire Border

Re: Rain

Post by maxandtheletter7 »

Pete are you a geographer of some sort? I was interested because you seem to have a fair bit of knowledge like above :)
Not swimming, not trying hard enough

User avatar
peakfreak
Posts: 1530
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2007 1:03 pm
Location: Ooop Norf
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by peakfreak »

maxandtheletter7 wrote:Pete are you a geographer of some sort? I was interested because you seem to have a fair bit of knowledge like above :)
Nah! He's just the Stig of the watersports world.

Some say when he jumps in a river, the water jumps out... some say they only made the song about John Kettley because they couldn't spell wildswimmer, all we know is he is the Wildswimmer Pete.
:-)

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

maxandtheletter7 wrote:Pete are you a geographer of some sort? I was interested because you seem to have a fair bit of knowledge like above :)
No, just been interested in the weather since I was a little tadpole half a century ago. I use the weather models together with my own experience to take a guess at what the weather is going to do but bear in mind that I'm only an amateur.

The weather also used to affect my passion for open water swimming however now it isn't usually a problem. Since I became a cold-hardened winter swimmer I can now swim outdoors in almost any conditions the British weather can throw at me - like the Llangollen Dee in full spate last December. Check my avatar ;-).

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

banburypaddler
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:46 pm

Re: Rain

Post by banburypaddler »

Heavy rain thundery this weekend is inevitable - it's a sprint weekend at Nottingham.

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Looks like tomorrow's rain is on schedule with a band of rain crossing the country morning to mid-day.

GFS model is predicting an almost stationary band of heavy rain lying right across the country for all of Wednesday, with plenty of convective activity on Thursday meaning showers or even thunderstorms. Meanwhile the low itself appears to be very tightly wound so there is a possibility of some very strong winds, particularly as it's expected to have an unusually low core pressure for the time of year.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Well in my neck of the woods today's rain event was a non-event although both Wales and Cumbria showed some bright echoes on the rain radar. The rain just fizzled out before it reached the Cheshire plain. Winds were strong though as expected although the gales were a bit more to the north off the Hebrides.

Heavy midweek rain is still forecast by both GFS and UKMO models, however the timing has changed slightly with the heaviest rain now expected through Tuesday night to Wednesday morning rather than all day Wed.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
Jim
Posts: 14114
Joined: Sun Apr 21, 2002 2:14 pm
Location: Dumbarton
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 71 times

Re: Rain

Post by Jim »

Definitely not a non event here. After a late start I put my days plans on hold and watched scrapheap challenge on account of the torrential rain (interspersed with short sunny spells). Eventually I decided I should head out to the garage to do some stuff but the rain was like thunder on the conservatory roof (which was also getting battered by the wind). After a few minutes watching the sort of rain I've normally only seen in the Alps I remembered my rain gauge, and a few minutes later the rain had eased enough for me to open the patio door, lean out and stick it in the lawn (getting only thoroughly soaked in the process). This was actually the last of the really heavy rain, I collected about 3mm in an hour or so, but by then it was barely raining at all compared to the stuff that had gone through earlier. I wonder what it would have said if I'd planted it a couple of hours earlier?

Lets hope the wind eases before the morning or I might not be cycling to work.

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

Apparently 41mm in Glasgow, 28mm in Eskdalemuir & "only" 23mm in Capel Curig yesterday...

Mike
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
coops
Posts: 81
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:27 pm
Location: Clachaig, Glencoe
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by coops »

Lots of rain in Lochaber yesterday and looking reasonably wet again today, very high winds though.

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

It must be raining, the EA river levels are offline:
River Levels Maintenance

The system is currently unavailable while maintenance takes place
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
Adrian Cooper
Posts: 9773
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 2:26 pm
Location: Buckinghamshire
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Rain

Post by Adrian Cooper »

I managed to get off the Spey before the weather turned nasty. It was pretty roten across most of Scotland, improving once we were passed Glasgow. The rivers in the Aviemore area came up very quickly

User avatar
Jim
Posts: 14114
Joined: Sun Apr 21, 2002 2:14 pm
Location: Dumbarton
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 71 times

Re: Rain

Post by Jim »

jmmoxon wrote:Apparently 41mm in Glasgow, 28mm in Eskdalemuir & "only" 23mm in Capel Curig yesterday...

Mike
I'll bet most of that 41mm fell over 2 or 3 hours - it was impressive!

neil.farmer
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Glasgow

Re: Rain

Post by neil.farmer »

A big surprise to me, but Peter Brown ran the Douglas water (loch Lomond) early on, then met Paul Steel & myself for a lovely (warm water) medium+ run down the Argyll Kinglas. A great summer surprise & after 4months of nothing, convinced me not to sell the boat!!
Neil Farmer (from mobile)

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Just as with Sunday, tonight/tomorrows rain doesn't seem to be as widespread as originally predicted but a bit fragmented. The main performance tonight is expected to take place over the Lakes and northward, but later tomorrow it looks as though a burst of heavy rain could affect the Midlands.

All isn't lost though. Anyone who misses out tonight could well see some rain Friday or Saturday when another (possibly thundery) low is expected to cross the UK.

This is the website I use for weather radar:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

It's just been announced that here in the NW of England (normally the wettest part of the country) we've had the driest winter and spring since 1929. Beginning Friday the local water company, United Utilities, is imposing a hosepipe ban in all parts of its area except for some parts of Cumbria.. In fact I'm sure I heard today that up here we are officially in drought.

Today's little piddle won't have done anything to help. Let's just hope that Friday's forecast rain will be of some use - it might be a case of third time lucky. If we have to endure cloudy summer days I'd prefer we actually got some useful rain from them.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

Dumfries & Galloway also the driest since 1941: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/sou ... 522173.stm

Not many long range forecasts available, so this is worth a look: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... ange;sess=
July wetter, August/september drier & October about average (with the usual caveats & disclaimers)

Mike
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

Well, for Wales and all but the far north of England Friday also turned out to be a damp squib. Only Scotland had anything in the way of useful rain. I'm afraid now that the current synoptic setup isn't going to change much with the bulk of England and Wales seeing very little rain for the foreseeable future. For my area (NW England) next week's forecast for heavy rain has already been downgraded to showers while the possibility for thundery showers this weekend in the south seems to be receding.

The devil's in the detail and while weather models are quite good at predicting large-scale events they can't work down to small-scale detail. Had the depressions that recently crossed just to the north of Scotland been some three hundred miles further south (a very short distance on the global scale) we'd have all had a very welcome drenching.

Looks as though there'll only be any decent river levels near to or north of the Border.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

User avatar
El Pres
Posts: 252
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Bolton / Tebay
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Rain

Post by El Pres »

There is unexpected water in the Cumbrian rivers, Just looked at medium running Kent, Lune, Borrowbeck and Sprint.

jmmoxon
Posts: 5918
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 12:12 pm
Location: Sometimes Sunny Somerset
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 54 times
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by jmmoxon »

Water levels on the Wye are "disasterous" http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/gloucesters ... 798475.stm
http://kayakworldguide.forums-free.com Links to websites with info on white water, touring, sea & surf.

User avatar
Wildswimmer Pete
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: Runcorn New Town
Has thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Rain

Post by Wildswimmer Pete »

jmmoxon wrote:Water levels on the Wye are "disasterous" http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/gloucesters ... 798475.stm
Bear in mind though that most of the water abstracted by water companies returns to the rivers a bit further downstream as treated sewage. Water used for irrigation however is lost through evaporation.

One reason for last week's poor showing is that a lot of the light rain that in winter would have made it to the ground, simply evaporated on the way down.

Incidentally, water companies know when folk are using hosepipes or whatever as assuming normal usage the amount of water supplied and the amount returned to the sewage system should be pretty much the same less the inevitable, comparatively small losses through evaporation and leaks.

Edit: Again models are predicting some heavy rain this week but again, it's how much and who gets it. Will the arid Midlands be saved from becoming the second Sahara? Mind you, rain has made it into the general weather forecasts so there may be some hope after all. Most likely from mid-week onwards.

Wildswimmer Pete
Nili illegitimi carborundum

Post Reply

Return to “Whitewater and Touring”