What Will We Make Kayaks Out of in the Future?

[peakfreak]

Just watching Newsnight and they are discussing the (apparent) fact that oil will run out in 46 years, of course there is the usual blah dee blah of one side says one thing and the other side says the opposite. But what will we make our kayaks out of in the future when we run out of the black stuff?

In true UKRGB style, discuss. (But nothing too heavy)

I would guess the cardboard canoe race may become more popular :-)

[Twix]

http://www.thewoodenboatschool.com/off-site-courses/kayak-woodduck.php

http://ahinesdesign.wordpress.com/2008/04/21/the-retrieval-kayak/

[h04dy]

Wow , I am not sure either we all might have to start hollowing out trees from the back garden lol

Most if not all of the polo and slalom boats are all now kevlar carbon , but if they keep making airplanes and gran prix cars out of the stuff its going to get very rare as well as bloody expensive .

Imagine taking your new kevlar carbon creeker down a grade 4 !!!! smashy smashy lol

There will be some sort of modern material out there still being fetled by science and weird guys in white coats I think .

Anyway thats my thoughts

H04dy

[morsey]

Cheese, that Blumenthal chap is on the case.

[ion]

Old boats ala Soylent Green.

[Moneill]

Cannabis

Don't think you would want to smoke it tho

[Jim]

Just watching Newsnight and they are discussing the (apparent) fact that oil will run out in 46 years, of course there is the usual blah dee blah of one side says one thing and the other side says the opposite. But what will we make our kayaks out of in the future when we run out of the black stuff?

Actually the 'sides' were not saying "the opposite", nor were they saying the oil would run out in 46 years.

The supposedly known reserves (even BP whose report it is questions the accuracy of some countries reports) will last for 46 years if consumption remains as it is today.

The oil man was saying that in fact modern technology means a return of 60% per well compared to 17% in the '70's so he is confident that the oil is there and can be got at, BUT he also made the point that he didn't believe the oil would run out because he believes we will have found alternatives before it does.

The sceptic (who also owns a solar energy company, although I'm not sure this was all a marketing stunt for him) was pointing out that oil consumption is predicted to rise (mainly because the likes of China and India are in the rapid growth that needs oil fuel to happen), but also expressing 2 things - a fear that we may already have reached peak production, or that we will reach it within 5 years. This is important, because this argument says that although there are 46 years of oil left in the ground (approximately subject to certain countries lies) that it cannot be extracted at a faster rate than it is today, and that whether it starts now or in 5 years time the rate of production is expected to fall. This means even if it holds steady for 5 years, that production will not meet demand which means an oil shortage.

The oil man's counter to this was that technology is improving all the time so it is not proven that we have reached peak production or that we will reach it before India and china are in a position to stabilise and focus on non-oil based energy. His concern seemed to be that what oil is left is being used too cheaply in he west for leisure pursuits when it should be being used to develop China/India and then wean the world off oil. He seemed quite certain that at some point there would be a price hike as the cost of production and exploration soar as deeper and deeper wells are needed, and in his view market forces would cause us to abandon oil for various alternatives.

The Solar man seemed to be more of the opinion that the price hike was going to be soon based on the gap in the supply and demand curves and that it would have global economic repercussions along the lines of the credit crunch.

Well guess what, oil replacement technology is being tried and tested all the time, if there is a shortfall in zero to 5 years probably it will hurt us all (price of everything will rise), but beyond then I'd bet the new technologies will be available to all. Again the oil man pointed out that when oil went over $150 per barrel there were forecasts of doom and gloom , but in fact we all just paid the increase because even at $150/bbl it is still cheap (currently about $100 I think). Who is right, what will actually happen? I don't know, we are not in as strong a financial position as we were for the last price hike on account of the credit crunch, but to be honest I am still seeing considerable affluence if not the high street spending the analysts look for. I reckon people are smarter with their money than the banks and I reckon that for most people (obviously if you have lost your job/house during it you won't agree) private finances are probably OK? I guess it's the hauliers that will be hit hardest again - when people stop buying luxury goods, they will stop transporting them leaving the hauliers short of work when they need it most.

So getting back to the question - what will we make kayaks out of? Skin on frame maybe? The coos probably won't be too happy.

Personally I think our top priority at the moment should be to start planting slow growing temperate hardwoods. Oil is not the only natural resource we will run out of eventually, metal ores are also finite, but I suspect that without cheap energy they will also become rare long before they run out. One answer to our transport issues is going to be wind power, one answer to our materials issues is going to be to use materials we can grow. History can point the way, technology can improve aspects, but I foresee a time when global trade goes back to sailing ships made of wood. British ships were often Larch on Oak - larch is no problem but it will take 300 years to grow the oaks so we need to start planting them now ready for the future! Of course those are not the only 2 boat building timbers, but generally some kind of hardwood is needed for frames (which takes a long time to grow) whilst fast growing softwoods are needed for planking. My new campaign therefore is going to be "Think ahead - plant Acorns" (and anyone caught planting RISC based microcomputers will get a kicking).

Jim
(Currently working for both the offshore oil and offshore renewables industries - it pays to plan ahead)

[scottdog007]

Probably nothing as we will be using levitation and a force field to part the water.

I bet they already have another form of energy available ready for when the black stuff stops, they just don´t tell us yet as it will effect the world economy.

[Poke]

I bet they already have another form of energy available ready for when the black stuff stops, they just don´t tell us yet as it will effect the world economy.

Never heard of this stuff?

[Jim Pullen]

We'll just find an alternative production method for ethene (which is the monomer for polyethene), its not that difficult to get bacteria to produce it for you instead of extracting it from the black stuff.

[pearcy]

In true UKRGB style, discuss. (But nothing too heavy)
I would guess the cardboard canoe race may become more popular :-)

http://microship.com/resources/cardboard-core-composites.html
Bargain!

Andy

[TechnoEngineer]

The oil man is lying through his teeth. All oil producing regions feature a production curve that approximates to a bell-shaped curve. If you put a lot of them together, you get a bigger bell-shaped curve, with bumps here and there etc. The "45 years" thing is what's called "R/P" - Reserves to Production ratio - simply taking the total known reserves and dividing it by current production levels, so implying production remains at (e.g.) 84MB/d then jumping down to zero after 45 years. It takes no account of depletion and gives a misleading picture of the future.

Sounds like the solar man is Jeremy Leggett, CEO of SolarCentury, who has a good grasp of Peak Oil and its implications. IIRC he used to be in the oil industry.

[h04dy]

Poke, if we start using that then the paddle companys will be loving it as we will all be growing extra arms . then we will all need to go out and buy special paddles for 4 armed people , but we might not have any water to paddle on as the water will evoparate on sight fit the boat got anywhere near it hahaha !!!!

I think I might stick to wood or kevlar carbon !!!

H04dy

[Poke]

Poke, if we start using that then the paddle companys will be loving it as we will all be growing extra arms . then we will all need to go out and buy special paddles for 4 armed people , but we might not have any water to paddle on as the water will evoparate on sight fit the boat got anywhere near it hahaha !!!!

Note; I wasn't suggesting this as an alternative material to make boats out of?!

[h04dy]

I was thinking you were on about energy rather than making canoes lol
The boats would have to be made out of concrete or billets of steel !!!! I aint carrying that to the river !!!

Cheers poke

H04dy

[Jim]

The oil man is lying through his teeth. All oil producing regions feature a production curve that approximates to a bell-shaped curve. If you put a lot of them together, you get a bigger bell-shaped curve, with bumps here and there etc. The "45 years" thing is what's called "R/P" - Reserves to Production ratio - simply taking the total known reserves and dividing it by current production levels, so implying production remains at (e.g.) 84MB/d then jumping down to zero after 45 years. It takes no account of depletion and gives a misleading picture of the future.

Sounds like the solar man is Jeremy Leggett, CEO of SolarCentury, who has a good grasp of Peak Oil and its implications. IIRC he used to be in the oil industry.

Could have been I didn't catch the names. LIke I said, despite his obvious connections to Solar power he was there to represent Peak Oil which is a consortium of lots of well known engineering companies - some of which have a hand in supporting the oil industry. They seem pretty well informed.

I don't think the oil man was lying either, he never disputed that production would peak, he may have disputed the idea that it had already, but Peak Oil themselves can't pin it down better than 'from now to 5 years time'. He was being very non-alarmist in stating his belief that demand was going to change and prevent a major oil crisis. He is Norwegian and I got a very real sense that he believes we are wasting oil and should use it more sensibly, I think his idea is that as oil peaks and prices rise people will stop using it wastefully and that actually production will be enough for the core energy consumers who need it in the interim before they manage to phase it out entirely.

One point is that this is all based on 'Proven oil reserves' that is oil that has been definitely identified as being there (although as I said there is a concern that some countries may have hyped the amount they have proven) and the current recovery rate from them. History has showed that recovery rate has improved and still has room to improve more (perhaps not from BPs well which is spewing it's oil into the gulf of Mexico), and that advances in drilling technology are making deeper reserves viable. The argument that in the last few years the estimate of reserves has altered by only a decimal point is encouraging - it means that new reserves have been uncovered that replace the oil we have taken out over that time. It can't last forever, but if you take a completely pessimistic view that doesn't make any allowance for possible new finds then you are going to be alarmed much more quickly. Who knows which is right, maybe we have now found all the oil there is to be found?

Both experts seemed to acknowledge that the oil will run out and that production will tail off (although the oil man did so by not disputing rather than saying as such - spin!), the argument was really centred around when it it will happen and whether or not it will cripple the global economy. Again, recent price hikes suggest it might not be that bad for a while. The oil companies are not stupid, they themselves are investing in replacing oil, maybe they do have more up their sleeves than we know about and are just waiting for the right time so they can make as much as possible out of oil first? Maybe they are all panicing about peak oil and just trying to keep a calm public face.
The one thing that JP asked and neither really answered was how the BP disaster and Obamas new policy on deep drilling is going to affect all this - is deep drilling in the US now out of the picture? THAT could cause a shortage sooner rather than later, even if it is an interim thing.

Bottom line is, no-one really knows - it's all down to stats, and stats can be manipulated to show whatever you like (just ask Npower about the Braan)

[TechnoEngineer]

On topic - I'd suggest wood, skin-on-frame, and perhaps bioengineered polymers as already mentioned.

Now just to be anal...

he was there to represent Peak Oil which is a consortium of lots of well known engineering companies - some of which have a hand in supporting the oil industry.

"Peak Oil" is no such thing. It's a term conjured by M.Hubbert back in 1956 to represent the phenomenon long known as "Hubbert's Peak". There is a group called ASPO who are dedicated to studies around global Peak Oil, they do a conference annually -> http://www.peakoil.net/

He was being very non-alarmist in stating his belief that demand was going to change and prevent a major oil crisis.

This is the usual spin of "the market will come up with a solution" from people who don't seem to understand humand behaviour in the real world. The likelihood is that there will be price fluctuations , so if left to "the market", investment in alternatives will be repeatedly stalled when oil prices fall, meaning that the capacity that should have been built won't be. Demand change will be brought about by high prices and people will find it painful to adjust. People will go on strike rather than adapt to the situation.

There will be thresholds crossed where the way things currently work just cannot be done any longer, e.g. at some point, farmers will need to abandon their tractor, employ 40 workers in its place, and use organic techniques rather than FF fertilisers and pesticides. However due to the market economy, unless they co-op together, or are protected by the Government, smaller farmers will continue to go out of business and large agribusiness will continue to take over, engendering a greater reliance on energy inputs, making the whole system a lot more fragile, putting us at a real risk of food shortages.

Maybe they are all panicing about peak oil and just trying to keep a calm public face.

I'd be inclined to agree with that; at an IET event there was a Shell rep' putting on a very upbeat presentation, when we collared him afterwards he said, "Yes we're very concerned about PO". Due to market economics it would be commercial suicide for them to confess publicly.

(although as I said there is a concern that some countries may have hyped the amount they have proven)

See the third graph here -> http://dieoff.org/page140.htm

'Proven oil reserves'

Colin Campbell has a good piece on this. IIRC there are usually three statistics quoted, P5 - 5% probability, P50 - 50% probability, P95 - 95% probability. The curve that joins them is a kind of y=1/x shape, however oil companies often take the P5 and P95 values and report the "mid-way" point between them, which is significantly more than the P50 value (because the P5 value is disproportionately higher).

it means that new reserves have been uncovered that replace the oil we have taken out over that time

That cannot be true - since 1979, discoveries have been below production and on a falling trend, a few years ago the ratio was something like 5 to 1 - i.e. producing 5 times more than what's being discovered. Most "significant" new finds I hear about amount to about 12 days of current global production.

The oil companies are not stupid, they themselves are investing in replacing oil, maybe they do have more up their sleeves than we know about and are just waiting for the right time so they can make as much as possible out of oil first?

I doubt that very much - there are OPEC and non-OPEC producers operating in a market economy. This is often the basis of a lot of insane conspiracy theories ("they're sitting on the oil to drive up prices"). Their infrastructure costs a lot of money to sit there doing nothing, so to intentionally do so would simply not make any commercial sense. Market economics is driving most companies to get it out of the ground as quickly as possible.

[jackbay131]

Gaffer tape.

[Adrian Cooper]

The one thing that JP asked and neither really answered was how the BP disaster and Obamas new policy on deep drilling is going to affect all this - is deep drilling in the US now out of the picture?

Out of the picture until it becomes 'necessary'. At that pint there will be a long list of 'safety measures' which will be used to convince the populus that it will be OK to reintroduce deep drilling.

[Bod]

The one thing that JP asked and neither really answered was how the BP disaster and Obamas new policy on deep drilling is going to affect all this - is deep drilling in the US now out of the picture?

Out of the picture until it becomes 'necessary'. At that pint there will be a long list of 'safety measures' which will be used to convince the populus that it will be OK to reintroduce deep drilling.

Meanwhile the Portugese cork farmers are fighting back from the devestating effect of bottle tops and have discovered a possible new market for their product and are currently doing trials with BP.

Or, more on topic, boats made of cork?

[dan-gilbert]

Could it be that instead of changing the kayak completely you just send it back and get it remoulded? Surely that could be done now which would probably save a lot of plastic.

Dan

[Jim]

On topic - I'd suggest wood, skin-on-frame, and perhaps bioengineered polymers as already mentioned.

Now just to be anal...

Look, I was simply reporting the points of view put across on the program, I don't necessarily believe either school is right. As usual I think the reality will lie somewhere in between the extreme viewpoints given.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Could it be that instead of changing the kayak completely you just send it back and get it remoulded? Surely that could be done now which would probably save a lot of plastic.

Dan

Only problem is, thermoplastics degrade each time they're remoulded/re-extruded.

Bear in mind that the base ingredients for polymers can also be derived from coal, and we've got plenty of that lying in the ground. In fact many of the materials we currently obtain from oil can be derived from coal. Much better than burning it.

Wildswimmer Pete

[Jim]

Oh, come one Pete - everyone knows there is hardly any coal left and it's too hard to get to, that's why we us so much oil in the first place.

Or are you suggesting that the government (Maggie Thatcher's?) lied to us just because they couldn't keep the miners happy?

[Alec Ferris]

Here's one thought- oil is produced from organic matter subjected to extreme pressure, so might it be possible for us to synthesise it from plant fibre?

[TechnoEngineer]

Yes it's perfectly possible to do so - however the amount of energy you have to put into the process is such that it's not worthwhile. In other words, there are better ways to make plastic (substitute) than by synthesizing mineral oil.

[magictom]

In the future they will make kayaks out of.... plastic.

[magictom]

Yep... I was right.

[Alec Ferris]

Yes it's perfectly possible to do so - however the amount of energy you have to put into the process is such that it's not worthwhile. In other words, there are better ways to make plastic (substitute) than by synthesizing mineral oil.

I thought that might be an issue.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Or are you suggesting that the government (Maggie Thatcher's?) lied to us just because they couldn't keep the miners happy?

Yes - Thatcher's single-minded goal was to destroy the National Union of Mineworkers at whatever cost to the country. Could be why our power industry is importing coal from disreputable sources where it's mined by child labour. Apparently we've got some 300 years' reserves of our own at current levels of use.

When natural gas runs out we are going to have to go back to coal gas and while I don't expect a return to the stinky gasworks of my childhood (it was 1969 when the UK switched to North Sea gas) I can see the gasification of coal perhaps by means other than the old-fashioned destructive distillation. However whatever means are used it's likely coal tar will also be produced which is almost as good a chemical feedstock as oil.

So future kayaks could be made from coal.

Wildswimmer Pete